First Snow!

Amounts range from an inch to about 3 inches across the state. It occured from 10PM through about 7AM. Snow fell right sown to the shoreline!

Here is a photo from New Haven's Wooster Square:

Snow Joke...The First Inch?

Here we are on the sixth of December 2008 and the first one inch of snow is a possibility during the next 12 to 16 hours for parts of Connecticut.
NAM and GFS QPF fields are not impressive. GFS....the "wetter" of the two models does have a >.10" swath up through Eastern Connecticut. The question is ....will this precipitation fall as snow down to the immediate shoreline?
As of 5PM Saturday, I am thinking dewpoints are pretty low and this is key for evaporative cooling. They range from 12 @ KOXC to 24 @ KIJD and even a low reading of 17 @ KBDR! The precip will occur during the "cold time" of the day and thicknesses are favorable for -SN.
I think dusting to maybe 2" will cover it. 2" may be a bit tall for this event......I think 1" will be common East of the CT River.
We shall see!

7-2-2008 PVA - NVA anyone?

Finally another update!

Time has really been flying by lately. We have had such an interesting pattern here across the NE United States. Our weather has been influenced by a deep trof for weeks. 500mb temperatures have been chilly since my last posting in May! (June temps actually averaged above normal for most Climo stations in Connecticut!)

I had to post an awesome example of PVA vs NVA. I was taught in Meteorology school back in The United States Marine Corps to make vorticity your friend. Today was a great example of how strong 500mb uvv's can combine with moisture and surface heating to make some big CBs that eventually led to severe thunderstorms.

Here is the modeled vort max for 18 z:

Here is a visible image shortly after the above analysis. Notice the convective clouds with TRW and hail to the east in the PVA area.

West of the axis, skies are sunny to mostly sunny associated with downward motion and NVA. Cool stuff! -Gil

Amazing Weather in a "Fall" Kind of Way!

Wow...we have been experiencing a real fall-like pattern over the past few days. Daily highs struggling for 50s and 60s with afternoon scattered showers. Mount Washington has been getting snow each day. 850MB temperatures have been <0 degrees C over CT for much of this week. As a matter of fact, -28C may occur this Thursday @ 500MB. Prime for afternoon instability showers. Some containing small hail!
High pressure looks to build in for the Holiday Weekend. Fair skies and warmer temperatures are in the forecast! This will be rare as I find holiday weekends are usually a "weather forecast challenge"!

Amazing Weather!

Our weather pattern has been amazing! Daily highs of 60s, 70s and 80s along with clear skies. Today will feature very dry conditions and a gusty breeze. This combination has increased the fire danger to very high. I expect some brush fires this afternoon that will be tough to control.

A large pattern change will try to get underway this weekend. Timing is tough on when we can expect rain drops......it does look much cooler with an onshore flow. I think this cut-off low may wobble around the NE in to early next week providing some much needed rain!

Recap 3-8-08 Storm

The maximum rain area occured across Southeastern Connecticut. Norwich had 4.81" and New London had 4.73" of rain and New Haven had 2.10"! The strongest wind was recorded at Windsor Locks Middle School at 62 mph during the evening just around frontal passage. The was a severe thunderstorm warning for Litchfield as the front came through.
The Farmington river did not rise to the dangerous level of 16' as predicted by the NERFC. I think it peaked at around 12 feet. The Connecticut river has minor flooding in Middletown and Portland right now. Rte. 7 did close in New Milford due to the high waters of the Housatonic River. -Gil

Flood Concerns

Here is a link to the river forecasts.

I am expecting some areas to pick up 3" or more of rain East of I-91. This will cause sig. rises on Eastern Connecticut's Rivers. Even in Western Ct., 1.2" of rain will send the Housatonic in to flood especially in New Milford and Shelton. The Farmington River could have the most significant impact to homes ....especially in Simsbury.

The rain will come in two periods. Number one tonight with a break Saturday Morning and the second round (heavier) will occur Saturday Evening. Dry weather is expected Sunday with breezy and colder conditions. -Gil

3-6-08 Serious Flooding On The Way?

WOW..........Low pressure forecast to move up over Connecticut Friday Night and Saturday could be a serious problem for the local area. The GFS and NAM agree on many areas with 3" of rain coming down very quickly. With rivers currently at or just over flood stage, this is not good news. The tropical moisture with this system seems very impressive.

3-5-08 Wednesday

The Thunder verified! We also had a wind gust to 68mph in Voluntown! The Housatonic River flowed over its bank in New Milford. Rte. 7 was closed due to the water near the intersection of 202/67.
Temperatures reached well in to the 50s today!

Our next concern is a rapidly deepening system for late Friday and Saturday. This thing looks intense! 500 mb tries to go negative tilt and the QPF is quite heavy. 00z run shows very warm air and the tropical connection is impressive! It has been trending to a warmer looking system through the runs today. It should turn colder Sunday in a post system NW flow.

Watching Tuesday Night & Wednesday

A low pressure center is forecast to move over Middletown CT Tuesday Night & Wednesday Morning. The GFS has copious amounts of rain and the NAM has half as much. Temperatures look tricky with a cold front sneaking in our direction from Canada Tuesday. Warm air will be running North at the same time. I am a little concerned about the risk of freezing rain for areas near the Mass. line for a period of time Tuesday Night before the WAA takes over Wednesday AM with very heavy rain. Stability idicies also hint at thunder possible at night! We shall see!

Also...one more thing. The heavy rain and mild air will combine with deep snowpack to raise the flood potential in CT. I will be watching this closely!

Rain-Rain & Yes......More Rain!

Another warm "moisture rich" system is dominating Connecticut's weather again! Currently @ 1:30AM it is a balmy 51 degrees in New Haven with a steady Southerly wind. I am forecasting 1" to 1.5" of rain from this system. The only exception will be NW Connecticut with 0.6" to 1" in the forecast there. I hope your Sump Pump is ready!

I also think some areas will reach 60 degrees Monday Afternoon. A big difference from 5 years ago when I started @ WTNH and we had a Blizzard on our hands! Click here to read about that storm!

I do expect some chilly air to return midweek. I am also watching a clipper closely for Wednesday. It doesn't look like much now....but we know how this Winter delivers surprises!

-Gil

A Busy Day! Snow to Ice!

What a busy day! The snow arrived around 4PM in New HAven. I was setting up with Keith Porter to go live with the SkyMax Mobile Weather Lab when it started.

We did two live shots stationary at the Cine 4 theatre location next to I-91 in New Haven with success! We then packed up and drove up and down I-91 plus I-95 with live hits in the 5:30PM and 6PM! It worked very, very well!

The snow continued through the evening statewide. This is how Court St. looked when I ran home to change in to a suit! Steady snow and about 25 degrees!

Sleet started to mix in around 10PM from New Haven Southwest through lower Fairfield County. Many reports of 2" to 4" of snow around the state. AS of writing this......it is 30.9 degrees 11 stories up with freezing rain! Good Night!

Okay I'm still up and I'm now worried about heavy Icing In Litchfield County with low temps and High forecast QPF.

Good Night for real!

Snow & Ice On The Way For Later Today!

Just high cirrus clouds over New Haven @ 9:30AM local. 06z runs still holding up the 00z trend. Temp just climbed to 23. Waiting on the 12z run!!

Radar imagery shows precip aloft to the SW of KNYC @ 10AM

INTERESTING WEATHER!

The weather has been really active. We have had thunder and lightning a couple of times in the past week. Blinding snow squalls this past Sunday.....temperatures in the 50s and near zero. I went on Monday Night with a forecast showing 3" to 6" of snow for the entire state Tuesday Evening (tonight). It should change to ice then rain from South to North. As I type this @ 1:15AM....most of the state has temperatures ranging from 11 to 18 degrees. I expect the snow to develop between 3PM and 6PM from West to East!

HERE IS THE 00Z NAM 36 HR ACCUMULATED SNOWHERE IS THE 00Z GFS 36 HR ACCUMULATED SNOW

RECORD WARMTH

High pressure continues to import warm air on a West-Southwest flow across Connecticut. Severe weather including tornado reports for the midwest where a strong LLJ has set up. Winter is alive and well on the West Coast as Spring visits in the East. We shall see if records are replaced today for high temperatures. 59 inland and 57 at the shore. I expect some 68 degree readings in Central CT.!