First Snow!

Amounts range from an inch to about 3 inches across the state. It occured from 10PM through about 7AM. Snow fell right sown to the shoreline!

Here is a photo from New Haven's Wooster Square:

Snow Joke...The First Inch?

Here we are on the sixth of December 2008 and the first one inch of snow is a possibility during the next 12 to 16 hours for parts of Connecticut.
NAM and GFS QPF fields are not impressive. GFS....the "wetter" of the two models does have a >.10" swath up through Eastern Connecticut. The question is ....will this precipitation fall as snow down to the immediate shoreline?
As of 5PM Saturday, I am thinking dewpoints are pretty low and this is key for evaporative cooling. They range from 12 @ KOXC to 24 @ KIJD and even a low reading of 17 @ KBDR! The precip will occur during the "cold time" of the day and thicknesses are favorable for -SN.
I think dusting to maybe 2" will cover it. 2" may be a bit tall for this event......I think 1" will be common East of the CT River.
We shall see!

7-2-2008 PVA - NVA anyone?

Finally another update!

Time has really been flying by lately. We have had such an interesting pattern here across the NE United States. Our weather has been influenced by a deep trof for weeks. 500mb temperatures have been chilly since my last posting in May! (June temps actually averaged above normal for most Climo stations in Connecticut!)

I had to post an awesome example of PVA vs NVA. I was taught in Meteorology school back in The United States Marine Corps to make vorticity your friend. Today was a great example of how strong 500mb uvv's can combine with moisture and surface heating to make some big CBs that eventually led to severe thunderstorms.

Here is the modeled vort max for 18 z:

Here is a visible image shortly after the above analysis. Notice the convective clouds with TRW and hail to the east in the PVA area.

West of the axis, skies are sunny to mostly sunny associated with downward motion and NVA. Cool stuff! -Gil

Amazing Weather in a "Fall" Kind of Way!

Wow...we have been experiencing a real fall-like pattern over the past few days. Daily highs struggling for 50s and 60s with afternoon scattered showers. Mount Washington has been getting snow each day. 850MB temperatures have been <0 degrees C over CT for much of this week. As a matter of fact, -28C may occur this Thursday @ 500MB. Prime for afternoon instability showers. Some containing small hail!
High pressure looks to build in for the Holiday Weekend. Fair skies and warmer temperatures are in the forecast! This will be rare as I find holiday weekends are usually a "weather forecast challenge"!

Amazing Weather!

Our weather pattern has been amazing! Daily highs of 60s, 70s and 80s along with clear skies. Today will feature very dry conditions and a gusty breeze. This combination has increased the fire danger to very high. I expect some brush fires this afternoon that will be tough to control.

A large pattern change will try to get underway this weekend. Timing is tough on when we can expect rain drops......it does look much cooler with an onshore flow. I think this cut-off low may wobble around the NE in to early next week providing some much needed rain!

Recap 3-8-08 Storm

The maximum rain area occured across Southeastern Connecticut. Norwich had 4.81" and New London had 4.73" of rain and New Haven had 2.10"! The strongest wind was recorded at Windsor Locks Middle School at 62 mph during the evening just around frontal passage. The was a severe thunderstorm warning for Litchfield as the front came through.
The Farmington river did not rise to the dangerous level of 16' as predicted by the NERFC. I think it peaked at around 12 feet. The Connecticut river has minor flooding in Middletown and Portland right now. Rte. 7 did close in New Milford due to the high waters of the Housatonic River. -Gil

Flood Concerns

Here is a link to the river forecasts.

I am expecting some areas to pick up 3" or more of rain East of I-91. This will cause sig. rises on Eastern Connecticut's Rivers. Even in Western Ct., 1.2" of rain will send the Housatonic in to flood especially in New Milford and Shelton. The Farmington River could have the most significant impact to homes ....especially in Simsbury.

The rain will come in two periods. Number one tonight with a break Saturday Morning and the second round (heavier) will occur Saturday Evening. Dry weather is expected Sunday with breezy and colder conditions. -Gil