Saturday, April 14, 2007

Open The Flood Gates!



Hello!
What a storm on the way. I am amazed at the QPF output for the next precipitation event. Okay...that's not all. Some incredible winds in the grid data just off the deck through 850mb.A strong LLJ with 70+kt moisture rich flow.
This QPF profile favors some serious flooding.

The ground is quite soggy in many locations. run-off will rapidly contribute to rising river levels. We are talking about a dose of roughly 2" in a six hour period tomorrow. Urban flooding could be serious.
Wind damage possible. Especially with a wet soil profile. this will need watching. Power outages a possibility. One good thing to note here....no leaves on the trees........so yes, one good thing!
It is also interesting to note some temperature profiles. The 2m temps cool midday on the GFS. Plus, at the start.....850 temps are less than 0c for much of the state. The NAM is opposite this time...go figure. The warmere GFS solution verified last event back on Thursday. Now the GFS is colder than the NAM. I still think thicknesses are too high. Even with strong uvv's it will be tough to get snow going and keep it going. the East-Southeast maritime flow is deep and strong.
Let's not forget wave action and very high tides. We have to be concerned about coastal flooding here with Spring tides already high. Models are indicating a 3+ foot surge here along the Connecticut shoreline.

Stay tuned!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Interesting to know.