Stormy Times Ahead.....Precip Type?

Sure, March storms pose a challenge when it comes to forecasting precipitation types and now it's APRIL. A very complex weather scenario will unfold over the next 24 hours. It is important to look at vertical motion in the atmosphere this time of year. You see, dynamic cooling can be key in snow/sleet forecasting this time of year.
Looking at the 18Z model data run....it is interesting to note the large thermal difference between the NAM and GFS @ hour +18.


Note the 0c isotherm location in reference to Connecticut between the two models. Thicknesses are >540dm. 12z Thursday GFS 700mb uvv's are 15ub/s @ KBDR and only 10ub/s @ KIJD for 18z. For the 18z NAM run, 21ub/s for KBDR @ 18z and only 9.9ub/s for KIJD.
A deep SE flow is also obvious across both models. Keep in mind Long Island Sound H2O temperatures are only 38-43 degrees.
I will be interested to see how the 00z models initialize. If the NAM is closer...this will have a huge impact on the duration of wintry precipitation for the onset. I am especially concerned about the areas from Ridgefield-Danbury-Wolcott-Putnam North. Hilly areas +500' have the best chance for accumulation. I think there could be some school delays in these areas. Even for New Haven points west, sleet may come down steady for a period of time around daybreak before going over to rain.
I will have a later update.
-Gil