Storm...Arriving!

Warnings
A quick post to highlight conditions unfolding across Connecticut. Snow is falling across NW & NE Connecticut. I have reports of 1" in Winsted already.
Heavy rain continues across the rest of the state. There have been some peak wind gusts of 30kt already.
Here is how the precipitation field looks:

Open The Flood Gates!

Hello!
What a storm on the way. I am amazed at the QPF output for the next precipitation event. Okay...that's not all. Some incredible winds in the grid data just off the deck through 850mb.A strong LLJ with 70+kt moisture rich flow.
This QPF profile favors some serious flooding.

The ground is quite soggy in many locations. run-off will rapidly contribute to rising river levels. We are talking about a dose of roughly 2" in a six hour period tomorrow. Urban flooding could be serious.
Wind damage possible. Especially with a wet soil profile. this will need watching. Power outages a possibility. One good thing to note here....no leaves on the trees........so yes, one good thing!
It is also interesting to note some temperature profiles. The 2m temps cool midday on the GFS. Plus, at the start.....850 temps are less than 0c for much of the state. The NAM is opposite this time...go figure. The warmere GFS solution verified last event back on Thursday. Now the GFS is colder than the NAM. I still think thicknesses are too high. Even with strong uvv's it will be tough to get snow going and keep it going. the East-Southeast maritime flow is deep and strong.
Let's not forget wave action and very high tides. We have to be concerned about coastal flooding here with Spring tides already high. Models are indicating a 3+ foot surge here along the Connecticut shoreline.

Stay tuned!

Stormy Times Ahead.....Precip Type?

Sure, March storms pose a challenge when it comes to forecasting precipitation types and now it's APRIL. A very complex weather scenario will unfold over the next 24 hours. It is important to look at vertical motion in the atmosphere this time of year. You see, dynamic cooling can be key in snow/sleet forecasting this time of year.
Looking at the 18Z model data run....it is interesting to note the large thermal difference between the NAM and GFS @ hour +18.


Note the 0c isotherm location in reference to Connecticut between the two models. Thicknesses are >540dm. 12z Thursday GFS 700mb uvv's are 15ub/s @ KBDR and only 10ub/s @ KIJD for 18z. For the 18z NAM run, 21ub/s for KBDR @ 18z and only 9.9ub/s for KIJD.
A deep SE flow is also obvious across both models. Keep in mind Long Island Sound H2O temperatures are only 38-43 degrees.
I will be interested to see how the 00z models initialize. If the NAM is closer...this will have a huge impact on the duration of wintry precipitation for the onset. I am especially concerned about the areas from Ridgefield-Danbury-Wolcott-Putnam North. Hilly areas +500' have the best chance for accumulation. I think there could be some school delays in these areas. Even for New Haven points west, sleet may come down steady for a period of time around daybreak before going over to rain.
I will have a later update.
-Gil

The chill remains!

Hello! I have missed a few days posting. I missed an amazing weather day, Easter. I say amazing due to the chilly air all day and yes passing flurries. Some areas around the state had a dusting from some of the snow showers!
Temperatures today (Tuesday) turned out below average again! Highs ranged between 43 and about 50 degrees. A Southeast wind will keep the shore chilly tomorrow. Inland areas may approach 50 before clouds move in and block out the sun.
Weather data has taken a turn for the warmer. The 850mb temp panels are much warmer when this system rolls over Connecticut late Wednesday Night and Thursday.

Thicknesses have increased big-time. I am still concerned about being under divergent left quadrant of polar jet and strong uvv's.
Could this dynamice cooling work for snow growth? That is the big question. I am buying into the warmer trend at this point. It is also important to note Long Island Sound Water temperatures are still only in the upper 30s to around 40. Not much of a warming source!
I think this is a very low confidence forecast. I am interested to see if 18Z data trends mild as well.

Let The " Chill " Begin!

Hello!
The last of the 40s remain across Connecticut. A Cyclonic flow aloft has kicked in now that low pressure moves away. Check out the beautiful signature on satellite!




Cold air Stratocumulus clearly showing up. there are scattered sprinkles and flurries on radar. Let's see how chilly high temperatures turn out over the next few days. 850 temps are really cold! -Gil

Raw Spring Weather

A Nasty day today across Connecticut. Check this snapshot of temperatures Wednesday Afternoon. Mainly 30s with Norfolk at 32 degrees. Heavy rain is falling with some sleet mixing in some areas. There are some 50+ dbz returns around North Branford and Durham as low pressure deepens near the Connecticut Shoreline.

We are still expecting cold temperatures to filter in over the next three to four days.
-Gil

Big Weather Changes Ahead!

What a day today. Low clouds and fog dominated across Connecticut today. At 5PM temperatures ranged from 41 to 49 degrees. That's it! A wedge of cold high pressure continues to hold to the weather pattern near Connecticut. The fog will likely become dense in areas overnight.
The big weather story is focused on Wednesday with a very strong cold front. This front will deliver a seasonal change to Connecticut. I expect high temperatures to struggle through the 30s Thursday -Saturday. Although this seems unusual, I noticed snow in the official data on April 5th last year for parts of the state.
We are also watching rivers across the state. Over an inch of rain will fall Wednesday creating rapid run-off. This will cause some rivers to rise rapidly. Stay tuned! -Gil