Happy Tuesday!We are in for some cloudy weather tonight and for a good part of Wednesday. Some areas may actually see a little drizzle or a few sprinkles. Certainly not a soaking rain.This cloudcover is associated with another round of warm air moving our way. It will feel like Summer for the last half of this week. I actually looked up the maximum temperature records for Thursday. They are: 83 in 1954 for the shoreline and 85 in 1954 for inland areas. I think we will be very close to these temperatures.....possibly setting a new record.Enjoy it and have a great rest of the week

Hello Rain Gods?

Another pattern with large high pressure locked in across the Northeast! Other than some spotty drizzle we don't see any heavy/soaking rain until Sunday Night or Monday. Some areas in the state are running 5" to 7" below average for yearly precipitation totals! Can someone do a rain-dance? -Gil

Heating up day to day!

A record warm day for parts of Connecticut today! 90 degrees shattered the old record at Bradley International Airport. 81 degrees was the high temperature at Sikorsky Memorial missing the 1970 record of 85 degrees.
We are looking for warmer temperatures tomorrow with 90s again in many areas! Cooler temperatures will settle in for the coming weekend! Have a great night! -Gil

OKAY.....I'M BACK!

My former weather intern pointed out my lack of dedication to this BLOG. I am guilty Jen! So I would like to start posting again! It was chilly this morning. Woodbury had a low temperature of 33f this morning! This is the coolest air of the season so far.
I also had a chance to take the Thimble Islands cruise this past weekend. It cleared nicely Saturday for a good afternoon trip. The wind did turn a bit gusty....it was still very nice! Check my photos! -Gil

Neglect!

I have been really bad about posting here. I hope to get back into the habit of posting. Especially after the Severe Weather we had yesterday!
Check back! -Gil

A Hot May-Day!

CT Observations17Z 25 May 2007 STN TIME PMSL ALTM TMP DEW RH DIR SPD GUS VIS CLOUDS Weather P01
DD/HHMM hPa inHg F F % deg kt kt mile in
==== ======= ====== ====== === === === === === === ==== ======= ============ ====
BDL 25/1651 1019.6 30.11 91 58 33 320 5 10.0 SCT055
BDR 25/1652 1020.8 30.15 78 58 50 250 11 10.0 CLR
DXR 25/1653 1021.3 30.17 86 57 37 320 5 10.0 CLR 0.00
GON 25/1656 30.11 79 63 58 240 10 6.0 CLR H
HFD 25/1653 1019.7 30.11 90 55 31 4 10.0 CLR
HVN 25/1653 1020.5 30.14 77 59 54 220 9 15 10.0 CLR
IJD 25/1652 1020.2 30.13 89 54 30 340 10 10.0 CLR
MMK 25/1653 1020.0 30.13 90 55 31 20 5 10.0 CLR
OXC 25/1655 30.19 84 61 45 0 0 6.0 FEW037
YSCB 25/1700 30.36 37 36 93 360 3 6.2

Strong High pressure is heating up temperatures today.

Kelvin Helmholtz Wave Clouds in CT

Some viewers emailed me asking......what were these clouds in the sky yesterday???

Is this an awesome picture or what? A big thank you to Trish who snapped this photo along I-91 Monday5-14-07 at 1:41PM.

These clouds are called Kelvin Helmholtz Wave Clouds or (KH) instability clouds. They are formed by the interaction of different velocities between two relatively stable layers. For more information....click here.

There was generally a NW component to the wind at or above 850mb when these clouds were observed. Speeds were up to about 100kt close to 300mb.

From Frost to Full Sunshine!

Hello!
Temperatures started off on a cold note this morning. KDXR was at 33f and there were colder areas. Now, conditions are beautiful with high pressure, clear skies and warming temperatures.
Long Island Sound water temperatures are curently in the 50s and this will cause cooler temperatures along the water's edge.
Summer temperatures are forecast for tomorrow as 850mb temperatures warm through the next 24 hours.
Interesting weather will move in starting Wednesday along a cold front. This front will slow as the upper level system slowly drifts across the Northeast through next weekend. Clouds and light showers will dominate the pattern late week into the weekend...stay tuned! -Gil

An Interesting Pattern

There are some interesting features on the weather map this morning! A huge ridge across the Northeast is delivering some really nice weather with blue skies and cool temperatures. Many stations in Connecticut were down to 32f this morning.
The severe weather is once again alive across the midwest and what is that low off of the North Carolina coast? This is a really interesing feature. There are some indications of this low trying to go warm core over the next 24 to 36 hours! Yes, warm core about a month before the official start to hurricane season. The GFS modeled this going warm core yesterday. I have already noted some gusts over 50kt in NC as the pressure gradient tightens. Let's see how this unfolds.
I am expecting some big temperature contrasts between inland and shore communities tomorrow and Wednesday. 60s to 80s.....stay tuned!!! -Gil

A Great Weather Day

Clouds and drizzle lingered for a few hours this morning across the state before clearing midday. Temperatures recovered into the 60s. To recap last night's data....I would give a letter grade "F"! QPF totals were much lower than predicted by the NAM and GFS!
We are looking at a prolonged period of fair weather. High pressure will slowly build in across New England from Central Canada. I am a little concerned about Sunday as a NE flow may try to get going. There are some hints of Drizzle and low clouds for NE Mass. I will watch that closely.
A weak cold front will wash out over Connecticut Monday Night and Tuesday Morning. I am going with a dry forecast now with just a band of cloud cover.
A few side notes:
Here is my forecast graphic for tomorrow:


Plus I had the SkyMax Mobile weather Lab out today in the beautiful area of Easton at Helen Keller Middle School.





Oh, and I was elected Employee of the month today as well! -Gil

Rain On The Way!

Dry weather dominated for the day today. Changes are on the way for tonight. A quick moving system off to the West will glide right across Connecticut overnight. QPF amounts based on the 18Z GFS run range from .25" NE to 1.25" SW in Connecticut.
The NAM has slightly less QPF, but still generous.
There are already some convective looking elements across Central New York State. Perhaps there could be some thunder tonight? Stay tuned!

A Beautiful Spring Day!

A gorgeous day today! A few morning showers with a cold front moved out quickly to reveal a beautiful afternoon. The wind is gusty with some gusts up over 40 mph. Temperatures climbed into the 70s across most of the state. I snapped a few pictures with my cell to capture some of the Spring beauty! Now if only the pollen count will lower!
I am expecting some rain tomorrow evening/night. About 0.50" should fall on average. Some areas with convective elements may see up to 1". Stay tuned for the possibility of frost late week.

FEELING LIKE SPRING....FINALLY!

Hello..
A quick post to document temperature trends. Yesterday turned out to be an amazing day of beautiful weather. Official highs: BDR 77f and BDL 78f! Normal highs are 59/62! As I post this today @ 10:30Local, temperatures are already climbing through the 60s. I will be interested to see if an onshore flow keeps temperatures locked in to the middle 60s near the water.
The satellite shot tells it all. Big bubble...no weather trouble! For now! -Gil

Sunshine At The End Of The Weather Tunnel!

Temperatures in the 30s and 40s now...there is hope just in time for the weekend! Check out my 8-day forecast from Tuesday Evening. I am expecting 70 degrees in many areas Sunday-Monday with sunshine! The immediate shore will have to deal with a slightly cooler wind off of the water. 50s and 60s there.
I was live at River Road in Cromwell today. The Connecticut River is amazing. The rate it is rising is unreal. We had to move vehicles due to the rising water. The forecast shows a crest of 15.4' Wednesday...stay tuned! Connecticut's other rivers are at crest or falling now.

Watching The Connecticut River

Hello!
Concerns rise as the Connecticut River does the same. The forecast calls for the river level to rise through Wednesday. The Northeast Forecast River Center calls for major flooding. Please see the graphic for Middletown.



Various rivers across the state are strating to recede slowly. Here is a link to the NERFC (river forecast center): Click here for river information across the state.

One good note...I am expecting a nice warm pattern change starting this weekend. I expect some locations to reach 70 degrees early next week! -Gil

40 Days & 40 Nights

10 inches of rain in Weston & brookfield CT. Widespread flooding and power outages. It has been a crazy 24 hours. Rivers are still rising. 2" of snow early yesterday morning in the Litchfield hills.......50s for parts of the state overnight.
Enhanced precipitation patterns ruled for Southwestern Connecticut. It was interesting to note the radar returns mirroring the Connecticut shoreline so many times last night. I wish I had a saved radar image! It seems as if the heaviest has passed now. Rivers will steal the headlines over the next couple of days.
Oh, and just taking a peek at some buoys S-E of New England...many are reporting 25+ foot waves!!
-Gil

Storm...Arriving!

Warnings
A quick post to highlight conditions unfolding across Connecticut. Snow is falling across NW & NE Connecticut. I have reports of 1" in Winsted already.
Heavy rain continues across the rest of the state. There have been some peak wind gusts of 30kt already.
Here is how the precipitation field looks:

Open The Flood Gates!

Hello!
What a storm on the way. I am amazed at the QPF output for the next precipitation event. Okay...that's not all. Some incredible winds in the grid data just off the deck through 850mb.A strong LLJ with 70+kt moisture rich flow.
This QPF profile favors some serious flooding.

The ground is quite soggy in many locations. run-off will rapidly contribute to rising river levels. We are talking about a dose of roughly 2" in a six hour period tomorrow. Urban flooding could be serious.
Wind damage possible. Especially with a wet soil profile. this will need watching. Power outages a possibility. One good thing to note here....no leaves on the trees........so yes, one good thing!
It is also interesting to note some temperature profiles. The 2m temps cool midday on the GFS. Plus, at the start.....850 temps are less than 0c for much of the state. The NAM is opposite this time...go figure. The warmere GFS solution verified last event back on Thursday. Now the GFS is colder than the NAM. I still think thicknesses are too high. Even with strong uvv's it will be tough to get snow going and keep it going. the East-Southeast maritime flow is deep and strong.
Let's not forget wave action and very high tides. We have to be concerned about coastal flooding here with Spring tides already high. Models are indicating a 3+ foot surge here along the Connecticut shoreline.

Stay tuned!

Stormy Times Ahead.....Precip Type?

Sure, March storms pose a challenge when it comes to forecasting precipitation types and now it's APRIL. A very complex weather scenario will unfold over the next 24 hours. It is important to look at vertical motion in the atmosphere this time of year. You see, dynamic cooling can be key in snow/sleet forecasting this time of year.
Looking at the 18Z model data run....it is interesting to note the large thermal difference between the NAM and GFS @ hour +18.


Note the 0c isotherm location in reference to Connecticut between the two models. Thicknesses are >540dm. 12z Thursday GFS 700mb uvv's are 15ub/s @ KBDR and only 10ub/s @ KIJD for 18z. For the 18z NAM run, 21ub/s for KBDR @ 18z and only 9.9ub/s for KIJD.
A deep SE flow is also obvious across both models. Keep in mind Long Island Sound H2O temperatures are only 38-43 degrees.
I will be interested to see how the 00z models initialize. If the NAM is closer...this will have a huge impact on the duration of wintry precipitation for the onset. I am especially concerned about the areas from Ridgefield-Danbury-Wolcott-Putnam North. Hilly areas +500' have the best chance for accumulation. I think there could be some school delays in these areas. Even for New Haven points west, sleet may come down steady for a period of time around daybreak before going over to rain.
I will have a later update.
-Gil

The chill remains!

Hello! I have missed a few days posting. I missed an amazing weather day, Easter. I say amazing due to the chilly air all day and yes passing flurries. Some areas around the state had a dusting from some of the snow showers!
Temperatures today (Tuesday) turned out below average again! Highs ranged between 43 and about 50 degrees. A Southeast wind will keep the shore chilly tomorrow. Inland areas may approach 50 before clouds move in and block out the sun.
Weather data has taken a turn for the warmer. The 850mb temp panels are much warmer when this system rolls over Connecticut late Wednesday Night and Thursday.

Thicknesses have increased big-time. I am still concerned about being under divergent left quadrant of polar jet and strong uvv's.
Could this dynamice cooling work for snow growth? That is the big question. I am buying into the warmer trend at this point. It is also important to note Long Island Sound Water temperatures are still only in the upper 30s to around 40. Not much of a warming source!
I think this is a very low confidence forecast. I am interested to see if 18Z data trends mild as well.

Let The " Chill " Begin!

Hello!
The last of the 40s remain across Connecticut. A Cyclonic flow aloft has kicked in now that low pressure moves away. Check out the beautiful signature on satellite!




Cold air Stratocumulus clearly showing up. there are scattered sprinkles and flurries on radar. Let's see how chilly high temperatures turn out over the next few days. 850 temps are really cold! -Gil

Raw Spring Weather

A Nasty day today across Connecticut. Check this snapshot of temperatures Wednesday Afternoon. Mainly 30s with Norfolk at 32 degrees. Heavy rain is falling with some sleet mixing in some areas. There are some 50+ dbz returns around North Branford and Durham as low pressure deepens near the Connecticut Shoreline.

We are still expecting cold temperatures to filter in over the next three to four days.
-Gil

Big Weather Changes Ahead!

What a day today. Low clouds and fog dominated across Connecticut today. At 5PM temperatures ranged from 41 to 49 degrees. That's it! A wedge of cold high pressure continues to hold to the weather pattern near Connecticut. The fog will likely become dense in areas overnight.
The big weather story is focused on Wednesday with a very strong cold front. This front will deliver a seasonal change to Connecticut. I expect high temperatures to struggle through the 30s Thursday -Saturday. Although this seems unusual, I noticed snow in the official data on April 5th last year for parts of the state.
We are also watching rivers across the state. Over an inch of rain will fall Wednesday creating rapid run-off. This will cause some rivers to rise rapidly. Stay tuned! -Gil

MY BLOG IS BORN

I have finally started a weather blog. I have alot of homework to do when it comes to "blogging". Stay tuned for information and blogs related to Connecticut's weather. I may post a daily forecast here for the state. -Gil